Jacob Chychrun buried the game-winner 1:19 into overtime, lifting Washington to a 3-2 victory over Tampa Bay. Washington’s offense clicked behind Tom Wilson’s goal and two assists, with Aliaksei Protas adding the tying goal late in the second. Dylan Strome fed two helpers while Logan Thompson stopped 17 shots in a tight, penalty-filled affair.

Tampa Bay split the scoring with Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point finding the net, and Alexei Vasilevskiy turning away 25 shots. Washington failed on their first 10 power plays but finally cashed in on the man advantage. Pierre-Luc Dubois was sidelined with a lower-body injury, and Tampa Bay’s Max Crozier exited early, leaving the defense shorthanded the rest of the way. Up next, Tampa at Detroit; Washington hosts Minnesota.

Capitals rebound from the opening loss to Boston by grabbing four points in NYC, flashing a rugged, defense-first identity. Lindgren and Thompson have anchored the net with a combined .957 save rate, and Washington has blanked the 5-on-5 for long stretches while the offense shows flashes—Protas’ two goals against the Islanders highlight a rising scorer amid a work-in-progress power play. Ovechkin remains scoreless as the schedule heats up with a visit from Tampa Bay.

The weekend underscored a team-wide push to tighten details and establish consistency, with Carbery stressing accountability and evolution as the Caps chase more performances like Saturday’s four-goal eruption.

NHL teams face regression risks this season. Morgan Geekie jumps to the top line with Boston, shooting% spikes and a near-30 goal ceiling look probable but not guaranteed. Scheifele may drop from elite status as Jets’ PP changes bite his pace. Protas surprised last year, yet sustained 21% shooting is unlikely. Hagel, Stone, and Duchene all carry notable regression risk due to line shifts, health, or role changes. Expect 22–26, 30/77, ~20, and 21/40-type outputs respectively, with upside dampened by tougher matchups and shooting normalization.

Shots, lines, and power-play dynamics shape these projections. Each player’s fate hinges on role stability, opponents’ adjustments, and the persistence of high shooting rates. The piece weighs who might still carve solid fantasy value despite regression, highlighting top-line exposure, minutes, and the likelihood of less favorable matchups as seasons begin.